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All professional gambling requires knowledge of the math involved in the game you're playing. Video poker is no exception to this rule. This page deals with math-based concepts in the game that you need to understand so you can win. We will explain payback percentage, odds and expected return. Actually, these concepts are all related.

Expected Return

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In gambling, expected return is what you would expect to get paid off a game in the long run if you make a certain decision. In video poker, this is the mathematically calculated profit you project you will make if you draw/hold certain cards in a hand.

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A knowledge of expected return is invaluable when playing video poker for a living. To win in video poker, you have to use correct strategy, an 'correct strategy' means making the decisions that give you the highest expected return. Oh, sure, you will not always win every hand when using correct video poker strategy, but in the long run it will pay off handsomely.

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How to Calculate Expected Return

Here is an example of calculating your expected return from a video poker hand decision:

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You are playing Jacks or Better. You get dealt four cards of the same suit and one card off-suit. There are 13 cards of each suit in a deck; you already have 4 of them so that leaves 9 cards that can make your hand. Subtract the 5 cards already in your current hand from 52; that is 52 - 5 = 47. Your odds of making the flush draw is 9/47. Now in Jacks or Better, a flush pays 6 for 1. Multiply it thus:

9/47 x 6 = 114.8% or 115%

Strategy cards simply take a deal and compare the expected returns of all possible decisions for that hand. The decision with the highest expected return is the correct decision.

Payback Percentage

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This is simply the money you expect to get back from a video poker machine or any gambler's game over a long amount of time. if the payback percentage is 85%, it means the casino gives back 85% to the players over time and keeps the remaining 15%.

You won't get back $15 out of every $100 bets you make. But over time this will come back to you. And if you play the right game with the right strategy, you will actually gain an edge over the house and expect a positive return; that is, over 100%. Games like Deuces Wild and Double Bonus have positive expectations.

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You also need to be aware of the fact that the royal flush pays off more for maximum bets. In standard Jacks or Better, a royal flush pays 250 for 1 for a 1-coin bet, 500 for 2-coin, 750 for 3-coin, 1,000 for 4-coin and a whopping 4,000 for the maximum 5-coin bet. Owing to this disparity, most of the payback percentage of the game comes from the royal flush when it hits.

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Now a royal flush doesn't hit often. On average, a royal flush is hit only once every 40,000 hands. That does not mean it will automatically show up on the 40,000th hand you play though. Actually, the random number generator throws up a royal flush more often than that; it's just that players rarely chance upon it when they press the deal button. You can't tell when you'll hit it. You just have to keep playing until it comes. If you play perfect strategy, by the time it hits, you will be making a big profit. That's the whole idea being playing video poker for a living!

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